4.1 Midterm Predictions

1. Why was it strange for the Democratic candidate to win in the Pennsylvania district?
Trump won the district by 20 percentage points, and the turnout was fairly high

2. On the chart, what is "Democratic swing"?
It is the difference between the results of the special election and the district’s partisan lean. Partisan lean is the average difference between how the constituency voted and how the country voted overall in the last two presidential elections, weighing the 2016 election at 75 percent and 2012 at25 percent.

3. Which special elections so far have had the largest Democratic swing?
Alabama U.S. Senate (at 31), Kansas 4th (at 23), and Pennsylvania 8th (at 22)

4. How is the generic ballot polling different from the results so far in these special elections?
Generic ballot polls are from registered voters or sometimes all adults rather than likely voters, and the actual results are from who actually did vote. As a result, so far, results indicate that generic ballot polling could be underrating Democrats in this year’s midterm.

(article: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-enthusiasm-gap-could-turn-a-democratic-wave-into-a-tsunami/)

5. What is the difference in the Republican and Democratic levels of interest in the mid term elections?
Democrats are showing more interest with 60 percent of Democrats and 64 percent of Clinton voters indicating a high degree of interest in the 2018 midterms compared to fifty-four percent of Republicans and 37 percent of independents.

6. What steps had Republicans taken to try to defeat Connor Lamb in the Pennsylvania district?
They spent $9 billion and had Trump campaign there.

7. What has happened to President Trump's approval ratings this year?
There is a slight increase in approval.

8. What do you think that indicates about voters' attitudes towards Republicans?
Despite Trump's slightly better approval, there has not been a corresponding overall increase in favoring Republicans in Congress. Voters likely have either had the same opinion or develop worse opinions for Republicans overall.

(article: https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/3/18/17136140/poll-2018-midterms-democrats-republicans-pennsylvania)

Comments

4.6 New Secretary of State

1. How is the Senate Foreign Relations Committee divided between Democrats and Republicans? There are 11 Republicans and 10 Democrats. All 10 Democrats and 1 Republican have said they will vote against Pompey. 2. Why is it divided that way? (not in the article, from your brain) The ratio between the parties of committee members reflects the ratio of full Congress. 3. Why is Pompeo in danger of not getting the approval of the committee if there are more Republicans? The committee knows that other Republicans will support him anyway and bring him for a vote of the entire Senate. 4. What will happen if the Committee votes against him? Can he still become Secretary of State? The Committee's vote is more symbolic endorsement because he will be confirmed by the entire Senate's vote. He can still become Secretary of State because in the Senate, the Republicans have the majority, and two Democrats have said they will vote for him. 5. Why are the two Democrats pl...

3.5 Trump and Circuit Courts

1. Where do the district court and appellate court fit into the organization of the federal courts? The district court is the lowest level of the federal courts, and it serves as a trial court. The appellate court is the next level up, and it handles appeals from the district court. 2. What makes the 9th Circuit stand out from the other circuit courts? It tends to have liberal rulings that are often reversed by the Supreme Court if appealed. 3. What historical cause may make this Circuit Court more liberal than others? 15 out of the 23 judges in the 9th Circuit Court of Appeals were appointed by Democrat Jimmy Carter. 4. Give two examples of very liberal decisions that have come from judges on this court. Stephen Reinhardt wrote the opinions that ruled the Second Amendment doesn't recognize an individual right to bear arms and participated in the ruling that said the Pledge of Allegiance includes unconstitutional endorsement of religion with the words "und...

4.3 This Week in Civil Rights

1. What question will be added to the Census in 2020? It will ask people to say which people in the household are citizens. 2. How does the government justify this addition? They say it will give more information about the United States. 3. Why do people have a problem with this addition? It could decrease the responses of people who are immigrants, particularly those who are not legal residents, of the United States and thus give an inaccurate count of population while allocating funding and determining congressional districts. 4. Why is it important to states that the undocumented immigrants that live there answer the Census? 5. What limit is put on the Census bureau to prevent the problems people are concerned about? 6. How are both critics of Trump and the Trump administration technically correct about this particular question on the Census? In previous years, the question about citizenship has appeared on a survey that is only sent to a small percentage of...

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