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2.4 Looking Ahead to 2018


1. How many total Republicans in Congress have already announced that they will not run for reelection in 2018?
14 (12 House Republicans and 2 Senators)
2. How many total Democrats in Congress have already announced that they will not run for reelection in 2018?
3 (3 House Democrats and 0 Senators)
3. What is so unique about the discrepancy between these two groups?
The high number of Republicans who are leaving suggests that they anticipate a wave of Democratic popularity. Their actions could contribute to such a Democratic trend.
4. What factors do the authors of the article suggest are behind these decisions not to run for reelection?
Republicans may fear backlash against the whole party due to the unpopularity of Donald Trump. Some may just be getting old. Others may not want to face tougher elections now that the Republican party appears to be weakening.
5.  Why might the elections for those in "safe red districts" be more difficult than in recent elections?
 The national political environment is changing in a way that is unfavorable to the Republican party, which is causing some Republicans to back away from politics even if they can still win easily because they feel their party's power is decreasing overall.
6. Why does the large number of incumbents retiring make it easier for Democrats to gain seats in the House than they otherwise would?
 Seats for which the incumbent is not running are more likely to flip from one party to another. Incumbents tend to win elections more than their newcomer competitors due to their experience and fame.
7. Why might this same thing help Democrats recruit better candidates?
 Strong candidates are usually more likely to run for an open seat than one for which an incumbent is seeking reelection.
8. About how much does FairVote say that incumbents are helped just by being incumbents in a normal election year?
The average is from 3 to 7 percent advantages.

article: https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/11/13/16624520/house-republicans-retiring-democratic-wave

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