1.7 Does Campaigning Work?

1.  What was the overall general finding of Broockman and Kalla’s analysis of campaign activities?

Campaigning basically has no effect on people's general election choices.

2.  What two time frames did Broockman and Kalla analyze in their study?

They looked at within 2 months of the election and also at longer than 2 months before the election.

3.  At what rate did they find that people were actually persuaded with campaign activities close to the election?

The rate was about 1 in 800 people reached was persuaded. This is almost 0.

4. How were the results different in the study between activities months before the election, and those that occur close to the election day?

Campaigning has almost no chance of persuading people when it is close to the election because almost everyone has already decided who to vote for, often based on parties, and cannot be moved by  these methods. Earlier, campaigns are more effective in changing opinions, but people may forget by the time the election arrives.

5. What types of voting are campaign activities most likely to impact voter outcomes?

Voting in primaries and ballot initiatives are most affected by campaigning.

6. What type of effect did they find that canvassing can have?

Personal canvassing had almost no effect in the last two months. Different studies showed that canvassing could either help or hurt the candidates, but the average was a negative 1.9 percent, barely over the 1.7 percent error margin.

7. What potential lessons could their experiments have for political campaigns in the future?

They should campaign more in the primaries and ballot initiatives because those seem to be more responsive to campaigns. They can also work on increasing voter turnout rather than just persuading people before election day.

8. Describe the two statewide cases where canvassing did have an effect on voter decisions.

In Oregon, Republican Gordon Smith won in the usually Democratic state by targeting pro-choice abortion voters with mail and phone calls to explain Smith's beliefs and how they differed from the other candidates'. 

In North Carolina, a campaign involved sending out flyers attacking the governor for his "bathroom bill." After they discovered the material was most persuasive to black voters, they identified black households and only gave flyers to them.

9. What is the problem with campaign efforts to get new voters registered ?

They are very expensive, and registered voters do not always go vote on election day.

10. Why are persuasion efforts mathematically more effective than finding new voters?

Persuading person can add one person to a party's coalition while taking away one from the other. Thus, they are now ahead by two votes rather than just one as would happen with finding new voters.

article: https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/9/28/16367580/campaigning-doesnt-work-general-election-study-kalla-broockman